Whether it’s the most advanced NOAA predictive models or simply tips for finding emergency shelter, here are the best apps and websites to prepare for the worst. So what can you do to stay safe if you’re in Dorian’s or any other tropical storm or hurricane’s path? Thankfully, there are plenty of hurricane trackers to help you prepare for these potentially deadly events. It’s approaching Florida and is expected to make landfall on Labor Day.
Noaa hurricane tracking software upgrade#
and it’s currently rated as a Category 3 storm, with forecasts set to upgrade it soon to a Category 4. Hurricane Dorian is rapidly approaching the U.S. For example, temperature changes in the stratosphere can affect the jet stream - the river of air that snakes across the United States and carries weather systems with it. That's a problem because the entire atmosphere is one continuous system, and what happens up high affects weather near the surface. Until now, NOAA's weather model didn't include what is happening in the top layers of the atmosphere. It is also the first time federal weather forecasts will use data collected in the upper atmosphere.
Noaa hurricane tracking software software#
The upgraded model relies on supercomputers in Virginia and Florida as well as software upgrades that allow the model to use more information from satellites and aircraft. "These improvements are pretty prominent," he says. That adds up to about 36 hours of extra lead time for residents in the storm's path. "We found about a 10 to 15% improvement in tropical cyclone track and intensity in the Atlantic Basin," Tallapragada says.
The new model appears to be noticeably better at predicting where hurricanes will make landfall. When it comes to protecting lives and property, however, hurricane forecasts are particularly important. The team found that the new model predicted the recent Colorado snowstorm nearly a day earlier and was more precise about where snow would be most intense. His team tested the new model against past weather events to see how it would have performed. "Improvements are pretty significant for this upgrade," says Vijay Tallapragada, the head of the Modeling and Data Assimilation Branch for NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center.
In tests, the upgraded weather model performed better than its predecessor. Inaccurate federal forecasts are dangerous because most weather apps, websites and television weather reports rely on the government information. And just this month the model incorrectly predicted how much precipitation would fall in a snowstorm that hit the Boulder, Colo., area. During the 2019 hurricane season, the federal weather model underperformed the European Union's forecast model when it came to predicting where hurricanes would make landfall. The most striking example was in 2012 when the model was slow to predict that Hurricane Sandy was going to make landfall. In many cases, federal weather forecasts have not provided accurate information. In recent years, Americans have experienced record-breaking hurricanes, wildfires, heat waves and rainstorms. "This is going to have a fundamental impact on the forecasts that are provided day to day," says Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service.Ĭlimate change is driving more severe weather across the country. The new model is better at predicting where hurricanes will form and how intense they will be as well as where and when snowstorms and rainstorms will occur, and how much precipitation will fall. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration upgraded the computer model that forecasters use to predict the weather one to two weeks in the future, called the Global Forecast System. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced it has upgraded its weather forecasting model to use more satellite weather data. satellite captures cloud cover over North America on Monday.
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